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  • Grammy Week!: SonicClash’s 2010 Predictions: Rap

    I have a love/hate relationship with the Grammy Awards. I love lists, and I love award shows, so even a minor-league award show piques my interest-and there’s nothing minor-league about the Grammys. This ceremony is to music what the Academy Awards are to movies. Not only is the receiving of this award a validation of sorts for the artists that win (after all, this award is voted on by other musicians as well as assorted execs and other industry folk), but it also pays dividends at the cash register-ask artists like Bonnie Raitt and Ricky Martin. Raitt’s surprise sweep in 1990 finally turned her into a superstar after decades of performing. Martin’s performance of “The Cup of Life” 11 years ago introduced him to a huge Middle American audience who had no idea who he was.

    On the other side of the coin is the fact that the people who are part of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences (the team that nominates artists and chooses who wins) have made some foolish choices over the years. An overly conservative block of voters has conspired to overlook some incredibly influential artists and bands over the years. Led Zeppelin never won a Grammy. Neither did Bob Marley. Other artists who have never won a Grammy Award: Diana Ross, The Clash, Hall and Oates, The Talking Heads, Public Enemy…need I go on? Smokey Robinson and James Brown have one Grammy each. The Rolling Stones have two.

    There have also been some pretty major errors in judgment over the years. Remember Christopher Cross’s Grammy sweep in 1981? How about Jethro Tull winning the first Grammy ever awarded in a heavy metal category? Steely Dan’s “Two Against Nature” beating “Kid A” and “The Marshall Mathers LP” for Album of the Year in 2001? What about Herbie Hancock beating Kanye West and Amy Winehouse in the same category just two years ago? The fact of the matter is that the majority of Grammy voters are over 50 (and thus, out of touch with what current musical tastes and genres are) and comprise whatever the music industry version of the Old Boys’ Network is, which leads rock crit-types (or really, anyone with more than a passing interest in contemporary music) to go batsh*t insane every year when the nominees and then the winners are announced.

    This year’s nominees are not so much out of touch as they are predictable. For better or for worse, this year’s big nominees represent what was actually popular in 2009. So the leading nominees are R&B diva Beyonce Knowles, country sweetheart Taylor Swift, dance diva Lady GaGa and (it pains me to write this) The Black Eyed Peas. All of the above named artists are talen-three of the four above named artists are talented, but even in what was a pretty crappy year for music, it’s hard to argue for any of these folks being the best that the industry had to offer last year.

    At any rate, I’ll be bringing you my predictions in the major categories and genres (except for country, which I will admit is not my most knowledgeable genre, despite more than a passing interest), with all the appropriate commentary. My success rate over the years has actually been pretty good, which should clue you in on how predictable the Grammys really are. Or maybe I have the inside track and actually know who the winners are before they’re announced? (No, that’s not the case. Although several people I know receive ballots, they’re quite tight-lipped about their choices).

    Anyway, we’re gonna start this party off with the rap categories. While the very first rap Grammy (back in 1989) went to the mom-friendly DJ Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince despite the fact that the previous year was a watershed moment in hip-hop, the voters have gotten better about nominating and awarding quality with the passage of time. The past decade’s big winners have been Kanye West (who has won 11 of his 12 Grammys in rap categories) and Eminem (who has 9 of his own), and they’re the big nominees this year, although all of West’s nominations save one come from appearances on other artists’ records, and Eminem’s “Relapse” was of questionable quality, to say the least. Let’s take a look at the nominees, shall we? Anything to shut me up…

    Best Rap Song (awarded to the songwriter)

    Nominees: Best I Ever Had (5 songwriters, including Drake and Lil Wayne), Day ‘n Nite (2 songwriters, including Kid Cudi), Dead and Gone (3 songwriters, including T.I. and Justin Timberlake), D.O.A. (Death of Auto-Tune) (7 songwriters, including Jay-Z), Run This Town (5 songwriters, including Jay-Z, Rihanna and Kanye West)
    Will Win: T.I. and Justin Timberlake
    Should Win: Tough choice

    Drake and Kid Cudi represent hip-hop’s new breed, and a win for either of them would represent a changing of the guard. Too bad that won’t be happening. Grammy has always been slow to recognize new talent, and the fact of the matter is that the older sector of voters recognize the names “Jay-Z” and “Kanye West” and not the names “Drake” and “Kid Cudi”. I’m tempted to say Jay-Z will win, but two things turn my vote in favor of T.I. One is the fact that Jigga is nominated twice and the two songs will likely split the vote, and the other is that the T.I. song has a socially redeeming message. Jay will win this award next year for “Empire State of Mind”, anyway. Hand this one to “Dead and Gone”, which, incidentally, is the best written song of the five and should win anyway.


    Best Rap Album

    Nominees: “Universal Mind Control” (Common),”Relapse” (Eminem), “R.O.O.T.S.” (Flo-Rida), “The Ecstatic” (Mos Def), “The Renaissance” (Q-Tip)

    Will Win: Eminem
    Should Win: Q-Tip

    The nominees in this category should serve as a reminder of how much crappy hip-hop music has been made in the past year or so. This award is Eminem’s to lose (“Relapse” got some critical love, Eminem is a Grammy favorite, and the album sold more than the other four albums put together), but let’s take a closer look at the nominees for a second. Flo-Rida’s nomination is a f*cking joke, Common made a completely embarrassing album that was the worst of his career, and, quite frankly, “Relapse” didn’t do Em any favors, either. Mos Def and Q-Tip, despite making the only two albums here worth a damn, aren’t commercially successful enough to triumph. While Mos’s “Ecstatic” was a nice bounceback after the artistically shaky (I’m being kind) “Tru3 Magic”, “The Renaissance” is clearly the best album of the 5 nominees from a qualitative standpoint.

    Oh, for those wondering where Jay and Kanye are: “808s and Heartbreak” was considered ineligible for the rap categories, and “The Blueprint 3” was released after the eligibility deadline and will most likely be nominated next year.


    Best Rap Solo Performance

    Nominees: “Best I Ever Had” (Drake), “Beautiful” (Eminem)”, “D.O.A. (Death of Auto-Tune)” (Jay-Z), “Day ‘n Nite” (Kid Cudi), “Casa Bey” (Mos Def)

    Will Win: Jay-Z
    Should Win: You get no argument from me here.

    Here’s an interesting category with 5 relatively strong nominees. The same premise that held true for the Best Rap Song category holds true here regarding Drake and Cudi, despite the fact that “Best I Ever Had” and “Day ‘n Nite” were actually the two most popular songs here (Drake could potentially pull off an upset-this guy has a deafening industry buzz). Mighty Mos is uber-talented, but is out of his league  from a popularity standpoint. While Eminem has a chance, I think that at this point, Jay-Z has pulled in front of him in terms of Grammy recognizability, if only by virtue of his run as an actual record executive-people take care of their own. Besides, “D.O.A.” was the best of the five songs nominated here.


    Best Rap Performance by a Duo or Group

    Nominees: “Too Many Rappers” (Beastie Boys and Nas), “Crack a Bottle” (Eminem, Dr. Dre and 50 Cent), “Money Goes, Honey Stay” (Fabolous featuring Jay-Z), “Make Her Say” (Kid Cudi, Kanye West and Common), “Amazing” (Kanye West and Young Jeezy)

    Will Win: “Crack a Bottle”
    Should Win: “Make Her Say”

    This is the most difficult of the categories to decide so far. If you put yourself in the head of the average Grammy voter, the only nominee you can definitely count out would be Fabolous-he doesn’t have enough name recognition, and the song he’s nominated for was an album track and not a single. The sympathy vote could go to the Beastie Boys, on account of MCA’s battle with cancer last year (and it would also give Nas his first ever Grammy), but seeing as a full recovery’s been made, I would bet against it (callous but true). The Grammy folks have been noticeably allergic to 50 Cent (who is Grammy-less so far in his career…and deservedly so, I might add), so even though “Crack a Bottle” was the biggest hit of the five nominees (hitting #1 on the Billboard singles chart), NARAS voters might pause when it comes to giving Curtis a trophy. Part of me still says the Aftermath trio will come out on top, but “Make Her Say” was just as big, has the intelligent/quirky/edgy factor going for it, samples one of the year’s biggest pop hits (“Poker Face”, which is nominated for Record and Song of the Year) and features previous Grammy winners Kanye and Common. Could go either way.

    Best Rap/Sung Collaboration
    Nominees: “Ego” (Beyonce featuring Kanye West), “Knock You Down” (Keri Hilson featuring Kanye West and Ne-Yo), “Run This Town” (Jay-Z featuring Rihanna and Kanye West), “I’m on a Boat” (The Lonely Island featuring T-Pain), “Dead and Gone” (T.I. featuring Justin Timberlake)

    Will Win: “Run This Town”
    Should Win: “I’m on a Boat”

    Should “I’m on a Boat” even be in this category? Well, truth be told, Andy Samberg and his boy Akiva (is that a black name or what?) have better rhyme skills than half the rappers out there. I’d love to see this song come out on top for the pure comedy aspect. Hey, like Kevin Garnett, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLE!!!!!

    No, seriously. It won’t win. This award essentially comes down to two songs: “Dead and Gone” and “Run This Town”. While I gave “Dead and Gone” the edge in the songwriting category, I think “Run This Town” has the edge in the performance category. In this case, you have to consider the Rihanna factor. Her infamous assault at the hands of then-boyfriend Chris Brown took place before last year’s Grammy ceremony, and that fact alone could guilt a lot of voters into awarding a song that features her. The only roadblock? Kanye West, who is nominated in this category THREE times and could very well split the vote. In that case, T.I. wins, at which point Grammy will be saddled with a winner who can’t attend the ceremony (as T.I. is in a halfway house right now) and, if “Dead and Gone” wins in both the categories it’s nominated in, it will mean that of Justin Timberlake’s eight career Grammy wins, three of them will have been in the “rap” category. And that’s just weird.

  • Chart Chat 2009 Wrap Up: Susan Boyle Falls Just Short

    Soundscan’s 2009 officially ended at midnight on Monday morning, and Taylor Swift and Susan Boyle were racing for the prize for best-selling album of the year. Swift manages to win in a photo finish. “Fearless” sold 3.22 million copies in the calendar year, just a shade over Boyle’s 3.10 million. Boyle can take some consolation in the fact that “I Dreamed a Dream” tops the Billboard album chart for a sixth consecutive week, with sales of 137,000 copies as the industry winds down from the holiday boom.

    Actually, this week’s Top 5 is very kind to the fairer sex. Aside from Boyle at the top and Swift at #5, the chart is filled out by a resurgent Lady GaGa at #2, Alicia Keys at #3 and Mary J. Blige at #4. The post-Christmas lull and a lack of new releases makes for a pretty uneventful chart, but that may change next week as newcomer Ke$ha challenges for the #1 spot.

    Let’s re-direct our attention to the year-end charts. Swift and Boyle had the only albums to move over 3 million units in 2009. All told, 5 albums crossed the 2 million mark, 22 albums crossed the 1 million mark and 62 albums scanned over half a million copies, as though we needed any further proof that the industry is shrinking-nearly 100 albums crossed the Gold barrier as recently as 2005.

    A few trends that jump out as I peruse the year-end totals:

    *Country is one genre that is illegal-download and recession proof. 14 country albums sold over half a million copies this year, led by two Taylor Swift albums. In addition to “Fearless”, her self-titled debut was the 35th best-selling album of the year with 782,000 copies sold. Other major country successes included Rascal Flatts, Carrie Underwood, the Zac Brown Band and the country-flavored “Hannah Montana” movie soundtrack, all of which were million-sellers.

    *Hip-hop had a mixed bag of a year. Three rap albums land in the Top 10. The Black Eyed Peas had the year’s 7th biggest seller with “The E.N.D.”, followed by Eminem’s “Relapse” at #8 and Jay-Z’s “Blueprint 3” at #9. The only other rap album to sell more than half a million units this past year was T.I.’s “Paper Trail”, which pops in at #58 with 530,000 units scanned. You could also technically include Kanye West’s “808s and Heartbreak”, which scanned 597,000 units this year, although it’s not a rap album per se.

    *If you’re an “American Idol” fan, now might be a good time to start buying music. Carrie Underwood’s “Play On” was the only album from an “Idol” alum to crash the million-sold barrier this year. She’s followed by Daughtry (#31, 882K) and Kelly Clarkson (#33, 813K). If you’re looking for other former “Idol”s, you have to go much lower on the chart, where you’ll find David Cook (#73), Underwood’s “Carnival Ride” (#74, Adam Lambert (#81), the first Daughtry album (#144), Underwood’s debut (#158), Jennifer Hudson (#166), Kris Allen (#183) and Kellie Pickler (#191).

    *Good old dependable rock & roll? Not so much. The biggest-selling rock album of the year was Kings of Leon’s “Only by the Night”, which lands at #10, with 1.4 million copies sold. Nickelback’s “Dark Horse” trails right behind at #11. Along with the “Twilight” soundtrack (#13), they are the only rock albums in the Top 20.

    *Then, of course, there’s Michael Jackson. “Number Ones” finished as the year’s third biggest-seller, with 2.4 million copies sold. It was followed by “This is It” (#12), “Thriller” (#14), and “The Essential Michael Jackson” (#20).

    *As far as sales disappointments go, albums by these superstar artists failed to even hit the 400,000 copies sold mark: Mariah Carey, Colbie Caillat, Creed, Fabolous, Rob Thomas and 50 Cent, while albums by Rick Ross and Bon Jovi have stalled under the 500,000 mark.
    Here are the year’s Top 40 sellers, according to Soundscan:

    1) Taylor Swift “Fearless”
    2) Susan Boyle “I Dreamed a Dream”
    3) Michael Jackson “Number Ones”
    4) Lady GaGa “The Fame”
    5) Andrea Bocelli “My Christmas”
    6) Soundtrack “Hannah Montana: The Movie”
    7) The Black Eyed Peas “The E.N.D.”
    8) Eminem “Relapse”
    9) Jay-Z “Blueprint 3”
    10) Kings of Leon “Only by the Night”
    11) Nickelback “Dark Horse”
    12) Michael Jackson “This is It”
    13) Soundtrack “Twilight”
    14) Michael Jackson “Thriller”
    15) Zac Brown Band “Foundation”
    16) Michael Buble “Crazy Love”
    17) Miley Cyrus “Time of Our Lives EP”
    18) Beyonce “I Am…Sasha Fierce”
    19) Carrie Underwood “Play On”
    20) Michael Jackson “The Essential Michael Jackson”
    21) Rascal Flatts “Unstoppable”
    22) U2 “No Line on the Horizon”
    23) Dave Matthews Band “Big Whiskey & the GrooGrux King”
    24) Lady Antebellum “Lady Antebellum”
    25) Soundtrack “Twilight: New Moon”
    26) Jason Aldean “Wide Open”
    27) Maxwell “BLACKsummersnight”
    28) Whitney Houston “I Look to You”
    29) Green Day “21st Century Breakdown”
    30) Darius Rucker “Learn to Live”
    31) Daughtry “Leave This Town”
    32) Various “Now That’s What I Call Music 32”
    33) Kelly Clarkson “All I Ever Wanted”
    34) P!nk “Funhouse”
    35) Taylor Swift “Taylor Swift”
    36) The Fray “The Fray”
    37) Alicia Keys “The Element of Freedom”
    38) Various “Now That’s What I Call Music 30”
    39) Justin Bieber “My World”
    40) Keith Urban “Defying Gravity”

  • Billboard Presents The Top Music Moments of the Decade

    In my haste to start covering year-end Soundscan stuff, I didn’t realize that there were actually 53 weeks in this chart year!! So we’ll take a look at some of those year end numbers NEXT week. This, of course, also means that Susan Boyle still has a chance to overtake Taylor Swift for the honor of having the year’s best selling album, although I would say that chance is rather slim, considering both the fact that sales are going to drop sharply in the coming week as well as the fact that the kids who will be cashing in gift cards and exchanging their uncool Christmas gifts will be more apt to pick up Taylor Swift and RETURN copies of the Susan Boyle album.

    Anyhoo, while we’re waiting for the year-end charts to be tabulated, let’s take a look at Billboard’s list of the Top 50 Music Moments of the past decade. This list is a pretty accurate compilation of the past ten years’ most earthshaking popular music moments. From ‘Nsync and Eminem’s massive sales at the decade’s outset to the popularity of the iPod, the device that changed the way we listen to music forever, a lot has happened, good and bad, in music.

    That said, some of the moments listed here made me raise my eyebrow. Was the Spice Girls’ reunion tour important to ANYONE? Did Noreaga’s “Oye Mi Canto” really kick off the reggaeton movement (and which was a bigger flash in the pan, reggaeton or Texas rap?)? Couldn’t they have used a more sensitive headline to describe Elliott Smith’s death? If Kanye West was unknown outside of hip-hop circles when he had his little Hurricane Katrina telethon outburst, then who were the three million people who bought “The College Dropout” BEFORE that incident? Who edited and proofed this thing? It’s one thing to see numerous spelling and grammatical errors in a blog like this (which is normally composed on the fly and has an audience of 30), but when Billboard magazine is making more spelling errors than me (and I assume they pay someone to ensure that those errors don’t happen), we definitely have a problem.